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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2017-12-24 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

LA
55.0%
TEN
45.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.018 vs Jared Goff (LA) +0.173 EPA/dropback
  • LA defense: -0.148 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 23
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: LA by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

LA

Matt Longacre LB Out Back

TEN

Logan Ryan CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 27
–
TEN 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:56 TD LA (8:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 30-T.Gurley for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – TEN 0
  • Q1 01:17 FG TEN (1:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. LA 6 – TEN 3
  • Q2 05:24 TD TEN (5:24) 16-J.Goff right guard to LA 7 for -4 yards (99-J.Casey). FUMBLES (99-J.Casey), RECOVERED by TEN-59-W.Woodyard at LA 4. 59-W.Woodyard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – TEN 9
  • Q2 04:38 TD LA (4:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 30-T.Gurley for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 12 – TEN 10
  • Q2 00:24 FG TEN (:24) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. LA 13 – TEN 13
  • Q3 06:44 TD LA (6:44) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 12-S.Watkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – TEN 13
  • Q3 04:28 TD TEN (4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-D.Murray right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – TEN 19
  • Q4 14:51 FG TEN (14:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. LA 20 – TEN 23
  • Q4 11:57 TD LA (11:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – TEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 68%

    (11:47) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete deep right to 88-M.Thomas (35-C.Riley).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (1:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (7:57) (Field Goal formation) 5-S.Ficken 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 36%

    (5:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to LA 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (:24) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:32) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 20 yards to LA 45, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:31) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to TEN 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 17 for 11 yards (55-C.Lynch). PENALTY on LA-10-P.Cooper, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at TEN 17.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 79%

    (9:43) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%

    (7:14) 30-T.Gurley left tackle pushed ob at TEN 3 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:32) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to TEN 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (14:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:21) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to LA 5, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-P.Cooper to LA 8 for 3 yards (32-D.Fluellen; 33-T.Smith).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:47) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to TEN 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 31 for 1 yard (83-J.Reynolds).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 23%

    (7:31) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to LA 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 27%

    (3:33) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 39%

    (1:45) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 32-D.Fluellen [98-C.Barwin].