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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:57) (Field Goal formation) 5-S.Ficken 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 18, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model