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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete deep right to 88-M.Thomas (35-C.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.40 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model