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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 3 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(5:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to LA 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.33 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP