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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 13 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(9:43) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.66 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model