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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 23 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(7:31) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to LA 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.06 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model