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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Tennessee Titans 23

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.80 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model