Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 13 – Los Angeles Rams 13

(13:32) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 20 yards to LA 45, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.37 EP
61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model