4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
DET Away

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2017-12-24 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DET
53.3%
CIN
46.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 23
–
CIN 22
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DET

Travis Swanson C Out Concussion
T.J. Lang G Doubtful Foot
Rodney Coe DT Questionable Illness
Brian Mihalik T Questionable Illness
Rick Wagner T Questionable Ankle

CIN

Cedric Ogbuehi T Out Shoulder
Andre Smith T Out Knee
Nick Vigil LB Out Ankle
George Iloka S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 17
–
CIN 26

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:00 TD DET (5:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CIN 0
  • Q2 07:38 FG CIN (7:38) 4-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. DET 7 – CIN 3
  • Q2 00:04 FG CIN (:04) 4-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. DET 7 – CIN 6
  • Q3 09:29 FG DET (9:29) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 10 – CIN 6
  • Q3 05:56 TD CIN (5:56) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 87-C.Uzomah for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – CIN 12
  • Q4 14:18 FG CIN (14:18) 4-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. DET 10 – CIN 16
  • Q4 09:54 TD DET (9:54) 38-T.Green left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – CIN 16
  • Q4 04:47 FG CIN (4:47) 4-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. DET 17 – CIN 19
  • Q4 02:00 TD CIN (2:00) 25-G.Bernard right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – CIN 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 23%

    (13:37) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to DET 16, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:39) 6-S.Martin punts 60 yards to CIN 11, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 14 for 3 yards (26-D.Carey). CIN-12-A.Erickson was injured during the play.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:46) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to DET 41, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 29%

    (7:23) 6-S.Martin punts 31 yards to CIN 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 13 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:55) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to DET 48, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 27%

    (12:34) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to CIN 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (7:38) 4-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 34%

    (2:41) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:47) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to DET 36, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (9:29) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 73%

    (3:51) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (14:18) 4-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 39%

    (11:17) 38-T.Green left guard to CIN 34 for 12 yards (52-B.Bell; 42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 71%

    (4:47) 4-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 15 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 28 for -9 yards (58-C.Lawson).