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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 51

Detroit Lions 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to CIN 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.65 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP