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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 4-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.64 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP