Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 17 at the 48
Detroit Lions 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3
What Actually Happened
(2:41) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.94 EP
-
26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.68 EP
- 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
KICK
-1.05 EP
- 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 66% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
