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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 17

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 4-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.24 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 17, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model