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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 50

Detroit Lions 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 6-S.Martin punts 31 yards to CIN 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.46 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP