Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 71

Detroit Lions 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 6-S.Martin punts 60 yards to CIN 11, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 14 for 3 yards (26-D.Carey). CIN-12-A.Erickson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.60 EP
59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model