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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 46

Detroit Lions 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 38-T.Green left guard to CIN 34 for 12 yards (52-B.Bell; 42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.43 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model