4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
TEN Away

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2017-12-17 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 💨 Windy Spread 2.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

TEN
39.2%
SF
60.8%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.366 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.039 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: -0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

TEN 21
–
SF 22
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

TEN

Derrick Morgan LB Out Knee
Johnathan Cyprien S Questionable Back
Phillip Supernaw TE Questionable Ankle

SF

Trenton Brown T Out Shoulder
Greg Mabin CB Questionable Calf
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 23
–
SF 25

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:55 FG SF (8:55) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. TEN 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 04:40 FG SF (4:40) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. TEN 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 14:10 FG TEN (14:10) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – SF 6
  • Q2 05:38 TD SF (5:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 88-G.Celek for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – SF 12
  • Q2 01:41 FG SF (1:41) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. TEN 3 – SF 16
  • Q2 00:37 TD TEN (:37) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 82-D.Walker for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – SF 16
  • Q3 08:34 FG TEN (8:34) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. PENALTY on SF-35-E.Reid, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. TEN 13 – SF 16
  • Q4 13:36 TD TEN (13:36) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 18-R.Matthews for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 19 – SF 16
  • Q4 08:33 FG SF (8:33) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. TEN 20 – SF 19
  • Q4 03:13 FG SF (3:13) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. TEN 20 – SF 22
  • Q4 01:12 FG TEN (1:12) 4-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 23 – SF 22
  • Q4 00:03 FG SF (:03) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. TEN 23 – SF 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 88%

    (8:55) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:48) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to SF 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-T.Taylor to SF 33 for 12 yards (33-T.Smith).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 72%

    (4:40) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 85%

    (14:10) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (1:41) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (8:34) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. PENALTY on SF-35-E.Reid, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:43) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TEN 23, Center-86-K.Nelson. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 21 for -2 yards (54-C.Marsh, 47-E.Lee). TEN-33-T.Smith was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN-53-D.Bates, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 23.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:35) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to SF 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-13-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 14%

    (2:34) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to TEN 49 for 2 yards (90-E.Mitchell).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 65%

    (1:12) 4-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 76%

    (:03) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.