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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.50 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model