4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to SF 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-T.Taylor to SF 33 for 12 yards (33-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model