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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 27

San Francisco 49ers 22 – Tennessee Titans 23

What Actually Happened

(:03) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.40 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model