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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 53
Tennessee Titans 20 – San Francisco 49ers 22
What Actually Happened
(2:34) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to TEN 49 for 2 yards (90-E.Mitchell).
The Three Options
GO
+0.83 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.93 EP
- 31% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 53, worth -1.61 EP
KICK
-0.95 EP
- 14% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
- 86% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT
-0.41 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
