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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 13

Tennessee Titans 10 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. PENALTY on SF-35-E.Reid, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model