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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 20 – San Francisco 49ers 19

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to SF 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-13-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model