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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 22

Tennessee Titans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model