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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

WAS
26.7%
LAC
73.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC defense: -0.159 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.194 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS on 3 more days rest than LAC

Predicted Final Score

WAS 20
–
LAC 28
Projected margin: LAC by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

WAS

Maurice Harris WR Out Concussion
Montae Nicholson S Out Concussion
Jordan Reed TE Out Hamstring
Zach Brown LB Questionable Hamstring
Terrell McClain DE Questionable Toe
Morgan Moses T Questionable Ankle
Chase Roullier C Questionable Hand
Martrell Spaight LB Questionable Ankle
Trent Williams T Questionable Knee

LAC

Mike Williams WR Questionable Knee
Corey Liuget DT Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 13
–
LAC 30

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:56 FG LAC (9:56) 5-T.Coons 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. WAS 0 – LAC 3
  • Q1 02:40 TD LAC (2:40) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 86-H.Henry for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – LAC 9
  • Q1 00:06 FG LAC (:06) 5-T.Coons 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. WAS 0 – LAC 13
  • Q2 10:20 TD WAS (10:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 85-V.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – LAC 13
  • Q2 10:13 TD LAC (10:13) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 16-Ty.Williams for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – LAC 19
  • Q2 02:26 FG LAC (2:26) 5-T.Coons 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. WAS 6 – LAC 23
  • Q3 06:20 TD LAC (6:20) 28-M.Gordon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – LAC 29
  • Q4 02:55 TD WAS (2:55) (Shotgun) 10-K.Clemens pass short left intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Breeland [98-M.Ioannidis] at WAS 4. 26-B.Breeland for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – LAC 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (9:56) 5-T.Coons 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 26%

    (7:06) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to LAC 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (:06) 5-T.Coons 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 60%

    (12:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 84-N.Paul to LAC 22 for 15 yards (20-D.King, 37-J.Addae).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 60%

    (6:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 85-V.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (2:26) 5-T.Coons 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:33) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to LAC 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (12:35) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to LAC 4, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-52-R.Anderson.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:34) 8-D.Kaser punts 61 yards to WAS 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 16 for 1 yard (30-A.Ekeler). PENALTY on WAS-40-J.Harvey-Clemons, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at WAS 15.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:53) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to LAC 45, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:43) 5-T.Way punts 32 yards to LAC 41, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:44) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to WAS 20, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 22 for 2 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:07) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to LAC 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 30 for no gain. PENALTY on LAC-56-K.Toomer, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30. Penalty on LAC-30-A.Ekeler, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:51) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to WAS 12, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 22 for 10 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:21) 5-T.Way punts 27 yards to LAC 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:29) 8-D.Kaser punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:45) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to LAC 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-T.Benjamin to WAS 27 for 47 yards (47-Q.Dunbar). WAS-55-C.Carter was injured during the play.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (:32) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to WAS 18, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.