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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 60

Washington Commanders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to LAC 4, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-52-R.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP