4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 5-T.Coons 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model