Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 76

Washington Commanders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to LAC 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-T.Benjamin to WAS 27 for 47 yards (47-Q.Dunbar). WAS-55-C.Carter was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model