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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 73

Washington Commanders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 5-T.Way punts 32 yards to LAC 41, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model