Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Washington Commanders
4th & 4 at the 37
Washington Commanders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 20
What Actually Happened
(6:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 85-V.Davis.
The Three Options
GO
+0.40 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
- 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.99 EP
KICK
-0.05 EP
- 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
- 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT
-0.40 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
