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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 18

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 5-T.Coons 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.85 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model