Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 81

Washington Commanders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to LAC 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 30 for no gain. PENALTY on LAC-56-K.Toomer, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30. Penalty on LAC-30-A.Ekeler, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.29 EP
71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model