Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO offense: +0.151 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- ATL offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- NO defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- QB edge to NO: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.142 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.219 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 14
NO
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:52 FG NO (9:52) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – ATL 0
- Q1 05:37 FG ATL (5:37) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. NO 3 – ATL 3
- Q2 04:35 TD ATL (4:35) 74-T.Sambrailo reported in as eligible. 24-D.Freeman left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – ATL 9
- Q2 02:00 TD NO (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 11-T.Lewis for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – ATL 10
- Q3 13:15 TD NO (13:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – ATL 10
- Q4 10:01 TD ATL (10:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 17 – ATL 16
- Q4 03:54 FG ATL (3:54) 3-M.Bryant 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. NO 17 – ATL 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 NO 4th & 14 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%
(9:52) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%
(5:37) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 25%
(2:21) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 19 for 4 yards (37-A.Maulet).
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(1:22) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to NO 26, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.
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Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 43%
(13:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
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Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(8:07) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to ATL 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on ATL-53-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(4:32) 5-M.Bosher punts 34 yards to NO 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.
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Q3 NO 4th & 14 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:13) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ATL 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 31 for no gain (31-C.Banjo).
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Q4 NO 4th & 13 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(7:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to ATL 28, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 34 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 70%
(3:54) 3-M.Bryant 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 24 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 87%
(1:55) 9-D.Brees right guard to ATL 22 for 2 yards (36-K.Ishmael).