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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.02 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP