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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 19 for 4 yards (37-A.Maulet).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.31 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 53, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP