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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth +0.90 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth +0.15 EP
PUNT +0.84 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model