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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 3-M.Bryant 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.14 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model