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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 16

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model