Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to ATL 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on ATL-53-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model