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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 80

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ATL 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 31 for no gain (31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.48 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 80, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 37, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model