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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

CIN
41.7%
DEN
58.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Brock Osweiler (DEN) -0.086 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.064 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
DEN 21
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CIN

Adam Jones CB Out Concussion
Kevin Minter LB Out Elbow
Pat Sims DT Out Calf
William Jackson CB Questionable Toe
Brandon LaFell WR Questionable Knee

DEN

A.J. Derby TE Out Shoulder
Jeff Heuerman TE Out Knee
Donald Stephenson T Questionable Calf
Cody Latimer WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 20
–
DEN 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:11 TD CIN (7:11) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 81-T.Kroft for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 00:45 TD DEN (:45) (Shotgun) 22-C.Anderson up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CIN 6 – DEN 6
  • Q2 13:01 TD CIN (13:01) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 12-A.Erickson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – DEN 7
  • Q3 04:58 FG DEN (4:58) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CIN 13 – DEN 10
  • Q4 09:02 TD CIN (9:02) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – DEN 10
  • Q4 05:12 TD DEN (5:12) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep left to 88-D.Thomas for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-G.Atkins]. CIN 20 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CIN 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 4 yards (34-W.Parks).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:17) 10-K.Huber punt is BLOCKED by 48-S.Barrett, Center-46-C.Harris, RECOVERED by DEN-34-W.Parks at CIN 29. 34-W.Parks to CIN 29 for no gain (42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 88%

    (4:08) 22-C.Anderson right tackle to CIN 19 for 3 yards (59-N.Vigil).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to CIN 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:04) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to DEN 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 39 for 15 yards (40-B.Wilson). PENALTY on DEN-41-J.Garcia-Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 39.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CIN 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:19) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to CIN 49, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-82-C.Carter.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 18 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (1:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to CIN 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:49) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 23 for -5 yards (50-J.Evans).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:46) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to DEN 18, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 45%

    (8:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CIN 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-16-B.Fowler.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:19) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to CIN 47, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-E.Sanders to CIN 44 for 3 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 80%

    (4:58) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 14 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 22%

    (:34) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 47%

    (2:00) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short right to 10-E.Sanders (27-D.Kirkpatrick).