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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 52

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:34) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.35 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model