Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to DEN 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 39 for 15 yards (40-B.Wilson). PENALTY on DEN-41-J.Garcia-Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.13 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model