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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 62

Denver Broncos 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to CIN 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model