Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 10-K.Huber punt is BLOCKED by 48-S.Barrett, Center-46-C.Harris, RECOVERED by DEN-34-W.Parks at CIN 29. 34-W.Parks to CIN 29 for no gain (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.70 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model