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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 57

Denver Broncos 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to CIN 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.37 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model