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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 54

Denver Broncos 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CIN 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.94 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model