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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 42

Denver Broncos 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CIN 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-16-B.Fowler.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model