4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Monday 2017-11-20 · 20:30 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

ATL
40.1%
SEA
59.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: -0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.104 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.190 EPA/dropback
  • SEA on 3 more days rest than ATL

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

ATL

Devonta Freeman RB Out Concussion
Matt Bosher P Questionable left Ankle
Duke Riley LB Questionable Knee

SEA

Kam Chancellor S Out Neck
Luke Joeckel G Out Knee
Michael Wilhoite LB Out Calf
Duane Brown T Questionable Ankle
Jarran Reed DT Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 34
–
SEA 31

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:03 TD ATL (12:03) 63-B.Garland and 92-D.Poe reported in as eligible. 26-T.Coleman left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-92-N.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined. ATL 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 07:58 TD ATL (7:58) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – SEA 0
  • Q1 03:00 TD SEA (3:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-J.Graham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 14 – SEA 6
  • Q2 14:13 TD ATL (14:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 11 for -9 yards (98-T.McKinley). FUMBLES (98-T.McKinley) [98-T.McKinley], RECOVERED by ATL-99-A.Clayborn at SEA 10. 99-A.Clayborn for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Fumble Forced by C.Upshaw. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 20 – SEA 7
  • Q2 08:15 FG SEA (8:15) 7-B.Walsh 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. ATL 21 – SEA 10
  • Q2 05:25 TD SEA (5:25) 3-R.Wilson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 21 – SEA 16
  • Q2 01:11 FG ATL (1:11) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 24 – SEA 17
  • Q3 11:25 FG SEA (11:25) 7-B.Walsh 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. ATL 24 – SEA 20
  • Q3 07:33 TD ATL (7:33) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 80-L.Toilolo for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [72-M.Bennett]. PENALTY on SEA-29-E.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ATL 30 – SEA 20
  • Q3 01:45 FG SEA (1:45) 7-B.Walsh 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. ATL 31 – SEA 23
  • Q4 03:52 FG ATL (3:52) 3-M.Bryant 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 34 – SEA 23
  • Q4 03:06 TD SEA (3:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-98-T.McKinley, Defensive Offside, declined. ATL 34 – SEA 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (15:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to SEA 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (8:15) 7-B.Walsh 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (5:25) 3-R.Wilson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 11 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 82%

    (1:11) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 92%

    (:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Ryan pass short middle to 82-L.Willson to ATL 21 for -4 yards (97-G.Jarrett).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%

    (11:25) 7-B.Walsh 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 54%

    (10:24) 5-M.Bosher punts 29 yards to SEA 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:03) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to ATL 38, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (3:52) 3-M.Bryant 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to SEA 35, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for no gain (17-M.Hall). PENALTY on SEA-59-J.Forrest, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 35.