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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 26

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.69 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model